The 2024 presidential election is on November 5th, 2024, and all eyes are on the swing states. A swing state, also known as a battleground state or a purple state, is a state in which voters are relatively evenly split between the two major political parties, the Democrats and the Republicans. In these states, election outcomes are often unpredictable, with neither party having a clear, consistent majority. As a result, swing states can “swing” to either party in presidential elections, making them crucial for candidates seeking to secure enough Electoral College votes to win the presidency.
Arizona. Georgia. Michigan. Nevada. North Carolina. Pennsylvania. Wisconsin. Seven states will be the deciding factor in the 2024 US Presidential Election according to pundits, political junkies, pollsters, and presidential betting odds in betting sites such as BetUS. Will it be Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
Out of all seven swing states, Trump is the biggest presidential betting favorite in Arizona at -260 (risk $260 to win $100), implying his odds of winning at 72.22%. It’s a potential rebound from his 2016 win after losing the state in 2020. Historically, Arizona leaned red until it flipped in 2020, a rare moment that hadn’t happened since Bill Clinton won it back in 1996. An upset by Harris is listed at +170 (risk $100 to win $170), giving her a 37.04% shot at winning.
Here’s another state where Trump is a huge betting favorite. At -240 (risk $240 to win $100), his chances of winning the Peach State are at 70.59%. Can the former president flip Georgia back to red after winning it in 2016 to Hillary and losing it in 2020 to Joe Biden?
Michigan is one of three swing states where Harris is within striking distance of Trump’s presidential election odds. At -105, her implied odds of winning Michigan are 51.22%. In 2016 Trump took the state before losing it to Biden in 2020.
With 15 electoral votes, Michigan is a crucial state for both candidates. If Harris wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump’s path to 270 shrinks requiring him to win Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
Nevada and its six electoral votes are a crapshoot. Even though the state has been blue since 2008, Trump and Harris are in a tie according to the US presidential betting odds. Over the past 11 elections, the winning party in the Silver State has gone on to win the presidential election ten times. The only exception? 2016, when Clinton won Nevada by 2.4% but ultimately lost the presidential race to Trump.
Republicans have captured the majority of the presidential vote in North Carolina in 10 of the past 11 elections. The last four races have been among the closest in the nation, and the last three elections have voted Republican, including for Mitt Romney in 2016. The Tar Heel State and its 16 electoral votes are favored to to Trump at -240 moneyline odds implying that he has a 70.59% chance of winning North Carolina.
With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is the most coveted of the swing states. In 2016 Trump flipped the Keystone State red for the first time since 1988 before Biden took it back in 2020. Whoever wins the state will have a much easier path to 270 and the White House. Trump will have 15 paths to victory if he takes the state, while Harris will have 10. A loss by Trump drops him to 6, while a Pennsylvania win by Harris will all but eliminate the chance of a tie between the candidates.
Wisconsin features ten electoral votes that have only gone red once since 1988. Trump’s Badger State victory in 2016 was a shock after Hillary Clinton didn’t even visit this state during her campaign. Just seven-tenths of a percentage point has decided Wisconsin’s electoral votes in the last two presidential elections. The 2000 election gap was just 0.2%, and the 2004 election saw a four-tenths gap.
The 2020 US presidential election saw Biden win a total of 306 electoral votes verus Trump’s 232, easily surpassing the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. Biden’s victory was thanks to the Democrats flipping swing states that Trump had won in 2016 – including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Will 2024 US Presidential election betting favorite Donald Trump flip back the swing states he lost to Joe Biden in 2020? Or will Kamala Harris and the Democrats grow their gains from four years ago to win the White House?