Will the Bengals’ luck run out vs the Chiefs? A sportsbook’s take

The Chiefs will be hosting their fifth straight AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium, following the Cincinnati Bengals' win over the Buffalo Bills last Sunday. As of Thursday afternoon, the Bengals were favored by just 1 point atBetUS.com (pronounced ‘Bet U.S.’) sportsbook. 

“Our preseason Super Bowl odds for the Chiefs started at +600 and after weathering the storm of Patrick Mahomes’ injury against the Jags in the Divisional Round, the Chiefs are now +265 to win the Super Bowl,” says BetUS analyst Marcus Johnson in a video where he breaks down the Kansas City team.

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are the two main reasons why the Chiefs have been Super Bowl favorites for the last 5 years. The quarterback, who is the favorite to win his second MVP award this season, was drafted in 2017 and Reid is the result of a coaching move made 10 years ago. 

“Coming into the season the Chiefs had gone to four consecutive AFC Championship games. And of course, they outlasted the 49ers in the thriller that was Super Bowl LIV, so they’re always amongst my favorites to win it all," concludes Johnson. 

Year of the Tiger? 

The Chinese Year of the Tiger was from February 1st, 2022 and just concluded last week on January 21st, 2023. Call it the luck of the tiger or not, the Bengals have won their last several encounters with the Chiefs by the skin of their teeth. 

The teams played each other three times during the “Year of the Tiger” - twice in January 2022 during the last post season as well as this season on December 4th, with the Bengals curiously inning all three meetings by just 3 points (34-31, 27-24, and 27-24). 

Will the Bengals’ luck run out with the passing of the “Year of the Tiger?” According to BetUS, bettors don’t think so. 

What do bettors say? 

Bettors at BetUS seem to be on the Bengals' bandwagon against the Chiefs. On the point spread, 73,34% of the wagers placed and 76.45% of the dollar volume have been bet on Cincinnati (currently a +1 underdog) according to a report by BetUS on Thursday. The Bengals have also attracted more than 60% of bets and 52.20% of the dollars wagered on the ‘money line,’ or outright winner, as of Thursday afternoon. 

BetUS customers are also expecting to see points on the board, with 57.3% of tickets and 61.16% of the dollar volume bet on the ‘over’ 47 total points set for this game 

Some important stats and trends for betting this game against the spread (“ATS”) 

*The Chiefs are 7-11 ATS in the season Including the playoffs.

*The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as the road favorites.

*The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

*Under is 5-0 in Bengals last 5 playoff road games.

*Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. 

For this game in particular, BetUS offers more than two dozen game props like what will be the first scoring play of the game, which team will score first, and the props that cannot be missed between the quarterbacks’ Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes.