Insider: Bet under 4 ½ rounds as Velasquez fights for redemption at BELLATOR 289

Juliana Velasquez is seeking redemption by reclaiming the undisputed Bellator MMA women’s flyweight championship in a rematch with Liz Carmouche on December 9th. The bout is set at 5 rounds and will be held at the Mohegan Sun Area in Uncasville, Connecticut.  

Velasquez, who was then undefeated, was dethroned by Carmouche in the fourth round of their Bellator 278 bout. Oddsmakers at online sportsbook, BetUS have Velasquez as a -170 favorite to win the rematch. This translates to a 62.9% implied probability of a Velasquez win. 

For her part, Carmouche is currently a +140 underdog or an implied probability of a 41.6% win (these figures don’t sum to 100% due to the bookmakers’ margin). This will be her first title defense and she is coming off a four-fight winning streak.  The over/under is set at 4 ½ rounds, with the ‘over’ priced as the favorite at –245 and the ‘under’ paying +195 as of Thursday afternoon. 

“Velasquez has been able to secure three Bellator victories by knockout, technical knockout or submission, though she hasn’t produced a finish win since 2019 at Bellator 224,” says Barry Barger, senior betting analyst at BetUS. 

After Bellator 278, Velasquez filed a protest with the Hawaii State Boxing Commission citing her belief that referee Mike Beltran had called off the bout too quickly. Although Velasquez and her camp had the support of John McCarthy, a former referee, the appeal was denied. 

“Due to that experience, I think we’ll see Velasquez do everything possible to finish this fight fast.  But Carmouche will be doing the same, so my personal preference here would be to bet the under 4 ½ rounds.  And it’s ‘plus’ money,” Barger adds, referring to the fact that the ‘under’ 4 ½ rounds is currently paying +195, meaning a $100 bet pays out $295 (that’s $195 in net profit plus the return of your $100 stake).   

Neither fighter has stepped into the octagon since April 22nd.   

Will this fight go the distance? BetUS senior betting analyst, Barry Barger is available to answer this and much more, provide additional commentary or interview on short notice.