Sharp money is on the Packers to beat the Titans

NFL Week 11 has arrived and Thursday Night Football will see the Green Bay Packers (4-6) hosting the Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Lambeau Field at 8:15 PM ET on Amazon Prime Video.

The Packers are -3 point favorite on the point spread at BetUS as of Tuesday morning and a -160 favorite on the ‘money line,’ meaning a bet on the outright winner.  The money line odds translate to an implied probability of a Green Bay win of 61.53%. 

According to data released by BetUS, 51% of bets and nearly 58% of the total dollar volume wagered on the point spread had been bet on the Titans to cover the point spread as of Tuesday morning. 

But ‘sharp’ or professional bettors might have a different idea, explains BetUS senior betting analyst, Barry Barger.  “That’s because the Packers have attracted 47% of the bets on the moneyline, but those bets account for an eye-popping 81.65% of the total dollar volume bet on the moneyline so far, despite their -160 favorite status,” Barger says.

“Typically, we see customers who bet on the moneyline take the underdog, because betting the underdog pays better.  For example, in this game, the Titans are +140, meaning a $100 bet on the Titans results in a payout of $240, or a net profit of $140 to the bettor plus the return of their $100 stake. But taken the other way, the Packers are -160 favorites and a customer would have to risk $160 just to net a $100 profit,” Barger explains.  “Typically, the public will bet the underdog on the moneyline - which is what we are also seeing here with more than 52% of the moneyline bets going to the underdog Titans.  But in terms of dollars and cents, more than 81% of the total dollar volume bet on the moneyline has been bet on the Packers, which means the larger bettors - which tend to be the professional or ‘sharp’ bettors who bet early (it’s still Tuesday) and bet big - are betting on a Packers win.”

After a rocky start to the season, and a lot of inconsistencies, the Packers are coming from a hard-fought  win in overtime against the Dallas Cowboys. The Titans are a surprising last place in both total offense and passing defense in the NFL.

“This should show if Aaron Rodgers still has it, since the way to whip Tennessee is through the air,” Barger continues. “Green Bay has 200+ rushing yards in 2 of their last 3 games and goes against the Titans' second-best rushing defense but worst passing defense, which should force Rodgers to take to the air, ” Barger concludes, adding that he expects Green Bay to both win and cover the point spread.